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EUROCONTROL publish updated traffic forecast

EUROCONTROL publish updated traffic forecast

19 October 2021: EUROCONTROL’s Statistical Forecasting Unit (STATFOR) has issued a new seven-year forecast looking at the expected evolution of domestic and international air traffic in Europe. As per the last forecast issued in May 2020, it assumes three scenarios – high, baseline and low. It should be noted that traffic levels during the second part of 2021 have been more in line with scenario 1 published in May,

  • The high scenario foresees envisages the vaccination campaign continuing both within Europe and globally with high reliability including effectiveness against variants. With a coordinated interregional approach, a continued reduction in travel restriction and with good passenger confidence combined with pent up demand, traffic is expected to recover to 2019 levels by mid-2023.
  • The baseline scenario foresees traffic returning to 2019 levels by end of 2023. As with the high scenario, vaccines remain reliable with herd immunity being reached in Europe. Travel restrictions are expected to be limited, with North Atlantic flows restarting in November 2021, Middle East during Q1 2022, Asia Pacific/India in Q3 2022, with Australia flows restarting at the end of 2022.
  • The third, most pessimistic scenario assumes traffic will only recover to 2019 levels after 2027. Assumptions for this low case recovery include a need for updated vaccines, strong requirements on travel restrictions, and stagnated demand and reluctance to travel for a significant proportion of the population.

The scenarios also take into consideration different economic forecasts, but additional risks not considered include oil prices, airspace and network changes affecting airlines route choice or unforeseen and unpredictable external factors.

The forecast is available to download at the top right of this page. The full article and downloads can be accessed via from the EUROCONTROL website here.