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EUROCONTROL publish new Draft Traffic Scenarios

EUROCONTROL has revised downwards its Draft Traffic Scenarios up to February 2021. Under its new ‘Current Status Scenario’, the total number of flights expected in Europe is anticipated to be 55 per cent lower than in 2019, a drop of 6 million flights, or a further 1 million reduction in European flights than previously anticipated.

Back in April, EUROCONTROL published forecast traffic scenarios reflecting the anticipated demand in the European Network expected due to impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. These scenarios in turn helped to steer the Network Operations Recovery plan, ensuring the relevant capacity was made available and any hotspots identified. 

These forecasts proved to be very accurate, with actual demand following the path expected up to and including the start of August. However, uncertainty around quarantines, new outbreaks of COVID-19 and further restrictions limiting long-haul travel have resulted in demand plateauing and in the past couple of weeks has seen demand reducing now that the traditional summer vacation season is drawing to a close.

As a result, a new short-term traffic scenario has been created (published on 14 September) which shows that demand across the EUROCONTROL area (41 states + Morocco / Israel) is likely to remain at around 40-45 per cent of that experienced at this time last year, and staying at those levels until Feb 2021 at the earliest. Of course, the situation remains fluid subject to further restrictions being applied by states, or indeed positive developments with regards to reduction in quarantines, improvement in testing protocols and vaccine development etc.

Read the latest correspondence from EUROCONTROL here.

For all the latest daily traffic information from EUROCONTROL go to https://www.eurocontrol.int/covid19#traffic-scenarios